A new research initiative, supported by a HU-rizont grant and led by the University of Szeged in collaboration with Kyoto University in Japan and Yale University in the United States, has been launched to develop a framework for rapid and coordinated responses to future pandemics. Under the leadership of Gergely Röst, mathematician at the University of Szeged, researchers will leverage data from Kyoto University to create detailed epidemiological scenarios, while Yale University will analyze these scenarios and draft practical recommendations and protocols. Demonstrating the project’s global impact, Toronto-based researchers are already facilitating collaboration between Canadian epidemic modelers and the Rapid-Grip initiative’s international network. This project establishes the University of Szeged as an increasingly influential contributor to global pandemic preparedness efforts.
Building on the lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic, it is now possible to better prepare for future global pandemics caused by unknown pathogens. By integrating findings from research groups worldwide, a comprehensive and interdisciplinary methodology can be developed to facilitate rapid and effective responses to emerging threats. Over the next three years, the University of Szeged’s Rapid-Grip project – funded by a HU-rizont grant – aims to establish such a framework. Led by mathematician Gergely Röst, head of the epidemic modeling research group at the Bolyai Institute within the University of Szeged’s Faculty of Science and Informatics, the project is set to launch in early 2025 in collaboration with researchers from Kyoto University and Yale University.
Gergely Röst considers the Rapid-Grip initiative to be the epidemiological counterpart to CEPI 2.0’s 100-day vaccine mission. According to CEPI 2.0, with current advancements in science and technology, a safe and effective vaccine against a newly emerging virus can be developed within 100 days. Rapid-Grip operates on the premise that by the time such a vaccine is ready, an internationally coordinated strategy for its deployment must already be in place. The project is structured around three seamlessly integrated phases:
The Rapid-Grip program’s epidemic response process
“When a pathogen with potential risks is detected, the first step is to analyze the available data and estimate the epidemiological parameters,” explains Dr. Gergely Röst. “This is followed by epidemiological modeling, during which another research group typically performs calculations, makes predictions, and outlines various scenarios. In the third phase, the modeling results must be applied in practice – this involves preparing specific recommendations and public health programs based on the models.”
“Scientists at Kyoto University bring significant experience to the first phase, while the University of Szeged will take the lead in the modeling work. Researchers from Hungary’s National Laboratory for Health Security, who gained extensive expertise during the COVID-19 pandemic, will also contribute to these efforts. Finally, Yale University – one of the world’s most renowned centers for epidemiological research – will compile the epidemiological protocols and the recommendations required for implementing measures.”
Gergely Röst, mathematician and leader of the Rapid-Grip HU-rizont consortium Photo by Ádám Kovács-Jerney
“In this project, we are developing a platform that will allow the three research teams to collaborate in real-time, ensuring that epidemic detection, modeling, and the formulation of practical recommendations can be carried out as swiftly as possible,” says Dr. Gergely Röst. He also emphasizes that collaboration between the teams in Szeged, Kyoto, and New Haven fosters the development of innovative methodologies by combining the diverse and complementary expertise of the three participating institutions.
Dr. Röst stresses that having a well-defined strategy for the first 100 days is essential even if the necessary vaccine isn’t available yet, and a viable plan for vaccine deployment should be in place by day 100. A key strategic question in this regard is: Which groups should be prioritized for vaccination?
“The answer depends on the pathogen’s characteristics and transmission parameters: which age groups are most affected, what the geographical spread looks like, who the primary transmitters are, and who the most vulnerable individuals are. Prioritization must be tailored to the specific pathogen based on epidemic dynamics – there is no one-size-fits-all solution. By the time the vaccine is developed, we must have gathered sufficient data, conducted thorough analyses, and completed modeling to ensure the vaccination strategy can be implemented effectively.”
The Rapid-Grip program’s integrated methodology
As the consortium leader, the Szeged team will oversee not only modeling work but also the integration of the entire process. Acting as the project’s mathematical hub, researchers at the University of Szeged will coordinate the efforts of Japanese epidemiologists and American public health experts to create a cohesive system. Indeed, the University’s two prominent international partners hold distinguished positions in epidemiological research: Yale is recognized as a global leader, while Kyoto University is ranked among the top three institutions in Asia in this field.
At Kyoto University, Gergely Röst’s collaborator will be Professor Hiroshi Nishiura, a renowned physician and epidemiologist who played a pivotal role in Japan’s COVID-19 pandemic response. According to an online article in Science, he was dubbed 'Uncle 80%’ by the local media during the early, explosive phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, when he urged the population to reduce social interactions by 80% to curb the spread of the virus. Professor Nishiura has visited the University of Szeged and maintains a long-standing professional relationship with Gergely Röst. The two have co-authored several publications, and the Hungarian mathematician has also contributed as an instructor in summer courses organized by Professor Nishiura in Japan.
Also involved in the project is Professor Alison Galvani, an epidemiologist from Yale University, who leads the Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis at the Yale Institute for Global Health. Although Dr. Galvani has a medical background, she frequently applies mathematical tools in her research, and her collaboration with Gergely Röst extends to co-authored work in the field.
Photo by Ádám Kovács-Jerney
Within the three-year project, the first two years are dedicated to developing the scientific and technological foundation, followed by the transformation of the process into a functional service in the third year. Once completed, the methodology will be presented to international organizations such as the World Health Organization (WHO), as well as European and American epidemic control authorities.
The significance of the project is evident in the swift interest it has garnered. Shortly after the grant was awarded, Toronto-based epidemic modelers expressed their intention to join the international network being established through the Rapid-Grip project, with plans to allocate substantial Canadian funding to support the collaboration.
Beyond its North American and Asian connections, the University of Szeged is strengthening its European partnerships. Gergely Röst points out that the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), based in Stockholm, is significantly expanding its modeling activities. The epidemic modeling group at the University of Szeged is part of a consortium led by the Helmholtz Institute in Germany, which, together with its partners, has secured a €3 million framework agreement. Moving forward, the University of Szeged’s mathematicians will be instrumental in performing critical epidemic calculations for the European Union.
With its international partnerships and the Rapid-Grip program, the University of Szeged has the potential to establish itself as a leading global center for epidemiological research in the future.
“The University of Szeged’s epidemic modeling team is gaining significant international prominence by collaborating with leading institutions such as the Yale School of Public Health and Kyoto University on the global stage. The HU-rizont grant has also created opportunities for collaboration beyond Europe, linking Szeged with two prestigious universities in Asia and the Americas – focusing on a topic that benefits all of humanity,” concludes Gergely Röst.
Original Hungarian text by Sándor Panek
The feature photo shows Gergely Röst, mathematician, head of the Department of Applied and Numerical Mathematics at the Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, Faculty of Science and Informatics, and leader of the Rapid-Grip HU-rizont consortium.
Photo by Ádám Kovács-Jerney
